HKUST PPOL Newsletter Spring 2023

HKUST PPOL Newsletter Spring 2023 Division of Public Policy Research Grants and Awards Research Showcase News and Events

Table of Contents The Acting Head’s Message Grants, Awards and Projects Research Showcase Public Policy Dialogue Series News and Events Student Activities 1 2 8 27 33 38

The Acting Head’s Message notably momentous events have marked this half-year period. The first is the rapid relaxation of COVID-related restrictions in Hong Kong. Few words can express the sea change in mood that this has brought about. As a result, the palpable enthusiasm and vigor that had been missing for three years have returned to our lives. The second event was the release of ChatGPT. Although there is no mention of ChatGPT in this newsletter, it is incumbent upon me to address it given its potential to upend so many jobs, tasks, and industries, particularly in education. As educators, my divisional colleagues and I have engaged in many discussions about ChatGPT and our response is evolving as our understanding evolves. Suffice it to say that, in combination, these events have added a flavor and spice that has been sorely lacking for quite some time! Happy reading! ur previous newsletter was issued in September 2022, and this newsletter covers the intervening period. Two O Professor Naubahar Sharif, Division of Public Policy, HKUST March 2023 HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 1

Grants, Awards and Projects 2

HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 This project aims to identify ethnic minority families to enhance their mental well-being and strengthen their familial relationships, through a collection of views, and stories from individuals regarding their family members, course and interactive group discussions and mindfulness-based activities to minimize emotional distress and improve inter-family harmony and relationships. This project is expected to significantly enhance understanding of conflict management and communication strategies within a familial context. The project will also enhance the ability of ethnic minority families to ‘self-tackle’ and ‘selfrestore’ harmonious familial relationships through mindfulness-based practices to deal with family-related issues and distress. Amount Awarded: HK $1,991,346 in January 2023 Funding Agency: Mental Health Initiatives Funding Scheme, Advisory Committee on Mental Health Strengthening Family Relationships for Hong Kong’s Ethnic Minority Communities in the Aftermath of COVID-19 Pandemic This project aims to bridge the gap between Hong Kong’s ethnic minority elderly and existing mental health support services in Hong Kong. It further aims to promote the proactive, early identification of ‘hidden’ cases of ethnic-minority elderly with, or at risk of, mental well-being issues, through the implementation of a suite of culturally sensitive, context-appropriate, and relevant programs/incentives for Hong Kong’s ethnic minority elderly. The project is expected to benefit the mental health of ethnic minority elderly who are ethnic Indians, Pakistanis, and Nepalese aged 65 or above. The collection of narratives and other life stories from the elderly participants will be important in enhancing their interpersonal communications, as well as understanding their backgrounds and how these factors, in turn, contribute to the mental health challenges (such as depression and/or anxiety) they are currently facing. Amount Awarded: HK $1,988,878 in January 2023 Funding Agency: Mental Health Initiatives Funding Scheme, Advisory Committee on Mental Health Supporting Ethnic Minority Elderly with Mental Health Needs PROJECT PROJECT Research and Community Grants Principal Investigator: Prof. Naubahar SHARIF 3

This project aims to develop a planning model for an EV charging infrastructure based on trip trajectories and Point of Interest (POI) density, using a combined method of optimization algorithms and spatial econometric models., to develop a year-by-year plan for establishing charging stations (CSs) in Hong Kong in the coming 5 years. By first predicting the expected growth in EVs number in HK in the next 5 years and making use of the existing survey data, people’s travel behaviors and trajectories of EVs and the traffic flows per road will be presented by models and the charging demand will be estimated in detailed spatial and temporal scales. The EV charge waiting time will also be estimated to determine the allocation of CSs to the assigned parking lots. This project will help adjust CSs allocation conditioned by HK’s policy regulations by predicting determinants such as the maximum number of charging posts per charging station and the maximum charging power, etc. Research Grants Amount Awarded: US$500,000 in December 2022 Funding Agency: CLP Research Fellowship, CLP Group 4 EV Charging Infrastructure Planning Based on an Integrated Model of Optimization Algorithms and Spatial-Temporal Analysis The proliferation of complex socioeconomic problems in contemporary societies requires innovative policy solutions. No innovation of significant magnitude is possible without ‘champions’ who energetically promote its introduction and diffusion. This project investigates how mid-level technocrats—who are traditionally described as mere implementers of dictated policies—drive local social welfare innovations in China. While China’s dynamic policy experimentation and local innovations have been widely documented in the literature, there is a paucity of knowledge on the role played by technocrats at the middle and lower echelon of the bureaucracy. Through a compound comparative case studies design, this project intends to elucidate the unique role played by mid-level technocrats in social welfare innovations in China, their motivations, entrepreneurial strategies, processes, and outcomes. Among the top 2% of the most cited scientists by Stanford University, Prof. He is ranked 823 out of 26,717 in the field of Political Science and Public Administration with a C Score of 2.7 (composite indicator for single-year Impact). The C-score focuses on impact (citations) rather than productivity (number of publications) and it also incorporates information on co-authorship and author positions (single, first, last author). Also. The C-scores are self-citations excluded. URL: https:// *This project is rated 5.0 full score by RGC Technocrats and Mid-Level Policy Entrepreneurship in China: Explaining Local Policy Innovations in the Social Welfare Arena* PROJECT Amount Awarded: HK$ 527,051 in December 2022 Funding Agency: RGC - General Research Fund 中國大陸的技術官僚與中層政策企業家: 解釋社會福利領域的地方政策創新* Principal Investigator: Prof. Alex HE Principal Investigator: Prof. Pengyu ZHU PROJECT

Research Grants This is a joint research project with Professor Carla-Leanne Washbourne and Ms. Veronica Qin Ting Li at the Department of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Public Policy (STEaPP) of UCL. Survey experiments in several large cities will be conducted, including Hong Kong and London, to understand how perspectives on sharing personal data for personalized COVID-19 advice differ across social, political, and cultural contexts. This study will explore the broader implications of these attitudes toward personal data use for personalized advice on a wide range of public policy issues, given recent trends toward the broad use of big data analytics and personalized services. In the long term, it is expected to contribute to advising the design and regulation of personalized advice tools on a wide range of policy issues, from health to environment and sustainability. Amount Awarded: 5,000 GBP in November 2022 Funding Agency: Global Engagement Funds (GEF), University College London Public Perspectives on Personal Data Use for Personalized COVID-19 Advice PROJECT 5 Against the backdrop of rapidly aging populations, there is increasing recognition of the need to integrate various health services for the elderly, not only to provide more coordinated care but also to contain the rapid cost inflation driven primarily by the curative sector. In many Asian societies, there is a presence of mixed financing and provisioning of health services. Multiple public, for-profit, and non-profit agencies are involved in providing preventive, promotive, curative, rehabilitative, and home-based care for older persons. This public-private mix is however inadequately understood by policymakers, practitioners, and researchers in terms of its mechanisms and challenges. This project seeks to inform major stakeholders in the region by mapping the public-private mix for continuity of care that includes health services (including long-term) and social care in urban and rural contexts in select Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Public-Private Mix for Continuity of Care for Older Persons with a Focus on Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia PROJECT Amount Awarded: US$24,900 in December 2022 Funding Agency: World Health Organization HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 Principal Investigator: Prof. Masaru YARIME

Awards and Achievements Professor Naubahar SHARIF Received the Inaugural Cornell-HKUST Global Strategic Collaboration Award Professor Sharif’s research interests include science, technology and innovation (STI) policy in Hong Kong and within the ‘Greater Bay Area’ of Southern China; automation in China; and the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative. In 2011 he completed the Executive Education program in Innovation for Economic Development at Harvard University. Professor Sharif has been nominated for the Michael G. Gale Medal for Distinguished Teaching, also has won the Interdisciplinary Programs Office’s Teaching Excellence Award (in 2020), the School of Humanities and Social Science (SHSS) Best Teacher Award (twice, in 2009 and 2016), and his course was nominated for the Common Core Excellence award. He has been awarded both ‘Public Policy Research’ (PPR) and ‘General Research Fund’ (GRF) grants by Hong Kong’s Research Grants Council (RGC). He has been the co-investigator for two ‘Strategic Public Policy Research’ (SPPR) grants awarded by Hong Kong’s Policy Innovation and Co-ordination Office (PICO) as well as a cross-institutional ‘Collaborative Research Fund” (CRF) grant also awarded by the RGC. Professor Sharif’s research has had a demonstrable impact on society and his research was one of HKUST’s few ‘impact case study’ submissions (sole-authored) for its 2020 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE). Each grant requires at least one principal investigator from HKUST and one from Cornell, the PI from Cornell is Dr. Ding Fei, senior research associate and lecturer in the Department of Global Development at Cornell University. Cornell University and HKUST have identified each other as strategic partners to foster deep collaborations in research and education, as part of Cornell’s Global Hubs initiative, which connects Cornell University with strong international peer institutions based in strategic locations worldwide. The Cornell-HKUST Global Strategic Collaboration Awards (GSCA) have been established to bring faculty from partner institutions together to develop joint projects that will strengthen the two universities’ strategic priorities and develop cutting-edge multidisciplinary research to create academic and societal impact. Only up to five proposals each year are funded under Cornell’s Global Hubs initiative. Each successful proposal may receive up to the equivalent of USD $5,000 from each university for a total of US$ 10,000. About Cornell University- HKUST Global Strategic Collaboration Award Professor Naubahar Sharif, Professor of Public Policy and Head of the Division of Public Policy (PPOL) has received the inaugural, 2022 Cornell-HKUST Global Strategic Collaboration Award for his project on “Competing or Complementary Hegemons? An Analysis of the West’s Responses to China’s Belt and Road Initiative”. Prof. Naubahar SHARIF 6

Joined the Division of Public Policy as an Assistant Professor in October 2022. Prof. Julien de TROULLIOUD de LANVERSIN Joined the Division of Public Policy as an Associate Professor in December 2022. Prof. Alex HE New Appointments HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 On-going Research Projects Leading Faculty Funding Agency Project Prof. Naubahar SHARIF 白立邦 教授 Mental Health Initiatives Funding Scheme (Phase 1) Center for Aging Science, The HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Center for Economic Policy, HKUST Preparing and Deploying Ethnic Minority Lay Leaders to Promote Mental Well-Being Among Hong Kong’s Major Ethnic Minority Communities (2022- Now) Prof. Kira MATUS 穆綺蘭 教授 RGC - General Research Fund Towards 1.5C Lifestyles: What Motivates Sustainable Consumption Choices in Hong Kong? 邁向 1.5C 生活模式:是什麼推動香港的可持續消費選擇? (2022-Now) Prof. Ye QI 齊曄 教授 Prof. Masaru YARIME 鎗目雅 副教授 Prof. Pengyu ZHU 朱鵬宇 副教授 RGC - Strategic Public Policy Research Funding Scheme Institute for Emerging Market Studies Institute for Emerging Market Studies RGC - Public Policy Research Funding Scheme Innovation and Technology Fund, Other Income (Non-Profit) Developing a Green Finance Centre in Hong Kong in the Context of Green Development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area: Institutional Analysis and Policy Design 粵港澳大灣區背景下香港綠色金融中心建設的制度分析與政 策設計 (2020- Now) The Smart City as a Field of Innovation: Effects of Public-Private Data Collaboration on Innovation in the Guangdong Province and Implications for the Greater Bay Area (2022-Now) Prof. Xiaofan ZHAO 趙小凡 助理教授 National Natural Science Foundation of China Explaining Business Compliance: Evidence from Energy-Saving Regulation in China 中國企業服從節能減排規制的動因及其作用機制 (2022-Now) The Persistence of Behavioral Changes in Post-Pandemic Hong Kong: Implications for Transportation, Housing and Economic Development Policies 後疫情時代香港社會⾏為轉變的持續性研究:對於交通政 策、住房政策以及經濟發展政策的指導意義 (2022-Now) Strategic Planning for Transforming Hong Kong into a Leading Global Aviation and Innovation Hub 香港轉型成為世界航空與創新中心之策略規劃 (2021- Now) Towards a More Inclusive Hong Kong: COVID-19, Mental Well-Being, and Mitigation Strategies For a Multicultural Elderly Community (2022- Now) Influence of an Interplay Between Culture and Chinese Outward FDI into Southeast Asia (2022- Now) 7

Research Showcase 8

HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 Research Showcase Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy He, Alex Jingwei. “Scaling-Up through Piloting: Dual-track Provider Payment Reforms in China’s Health System.” management of scaling up in the health sector. It analyses the recent development of provider payment reforms in China, focusing particularly on the ongoing pilot programs, namely diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) and diagnosis-intervention packets (DIP), that are being piloted in a dual-track fashion since 2020. Data were drawn from extensive documentary analysis and 20 in-depth interviews with key stakeholders, including decisionmakers and implementers. It is found that scaling up through piloting helps his paper puts forth ‘scaling up through piloting’ as a distinctive pathway for the strategic T Chinese policymakers minimize the vast uncertainties associated with complex payment reforms and maximize the local adaptability of provider payment innovations. This pathway has forged a phased implementation process, allowing new payment models to be tested, evaluated, compared, and adjusted in a full spectrum of local contexts before a national rollout. Several key factors have been identified as crucial for strategic scaling-up: necessary central steering, a pragmatic piloting design, strong technical capacity, and effective policy learning mechanisms. Health Policy & Planning (2022). 9 Geographic distribution of DRG/DIP pilots in China.

10 Research Showcase model within the specific context of Pakistan and assessment of the extent of the model’s reliance on ICT. Second, a dissection of the PPP model to understand the degree to which it suits Pakistan’s prevailing socioeconomic context. Third, a discussion of the applicability of the model—under which mobile phones serve as a key tool for solving social problems and creating social enterprises—to other neighboring South Asian economies such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Nepal—which represent similar levels of socioeconomic development. Sharif, Naubahar, and Athar Mansoor. “Pakistan Post and the Creation of an Innovative Business Model to Enhance Financial Inclusion.” Public Sector Reforms in Pakistan: Hierarchies, Markets and Networks. model characterized as a comprehensive public–private partnership (PPP) plan. This plan proposes combining Pakistan Post’s network of post offices—which serve as savings banks—with mobile phone platforms, enabling people across Pakistan to access financial services either physically or virtually. Three key sets of issues were analyzed: First, the explication of the characteristics of this new information and communication technology (ICT)-driven PPP business his book chapter investigates and analyses the efforts led by Pakistan Post to create a new business T Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. 251-273. Mobile Money Solution

HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 11 Research Showcase Li, Z., Guo, Y., Yarime, M., & Wu, X. (2022). Policy Designs for Adaptive Governance of Disruptive Technologies: the Case of Facial Recognition Technology (FRT) in China. are welcome to those long concerned about the risks associated with their rapid deployment. However, these changes are not sufficient to safeguard privacy and data security. More importantly, these policies may not have fully accounted for the disruptive nature of these technologies. This paper examines the need and the ecent regulations introduced by the Chinese government regarding big data technologies R potential for new approaches in policy design regarding disruptive technologies by examining the case of facial recognition technology (FRT) in China. It is argued that adaptive governance provides a useful framework for future policy design. Regulatory sandbox approach, policy mix, and stakeholder engagement are among key policy measures to overcome regulatory challenges. Policy Design and Practice, 1-14.

Research Showcase protectionist sanction-proofing strategy for the local IT sector designed by the government, which can be characterized by lifting regulatory barriers for local companies. Unenforceable ethics-based self-regulation is a regulatory gift from the Russian government to the industry. This gift was intentionally designed because the government thought that prioritizing local innovation over consumer protection would benefit the public. However, the gift can also unintentionally undermine the public interest by providing an opportunity for ethics washing. Papyshev, Gleb, and Masaru Yarime. “The Limitation of Ethics-Based Approaches to Regulating Artificial Intelligence: Regulatory Gifting in the Context of Russia.” Russia to illustrate the limitations of the unenforceable ethical approach implemented via industry self-regulation. Based on 50 interviews with policymakers, representatives of AI companies, and academics in the country, it shows that this regulatory regime was formed under the strong influence of Russian big tech companies, which saw an opportunity to avoid regulatory oversight by washing out concrete regulatory measures from the policy. This approach is part of a broader his paper analyzes the emergence of the regulatory regime for artificial intelligence (AI) in T AI & SOCIETY (2022): 1-16. 12

HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 13 Research Showcase Papyshev, Gleb, and Masaru Yarime. “The State’s Role in Governing Artificial Intelligence: Development, Control, and Promotion Through National Strategies.” governments across the globe have issued, using qualitative content analysis and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modeling methodologies. The findings of the qualitative content analysis highlight thirteen functions of the state, which include human capital, ethics, R&D, regulation, data, private sector support, public sector applications, diffusion and awareness, digital infrastructure, national security, national challenges, international cooperation, and financial support. These functions are combined into three general themes, representing the state’s role: development, control, and promotion. LDA his study investigates the texts of 31 national artificial intelligence (AI) strategies that numerous T topic modeling results are also reflective of these themes. Each general theme is present in every national strategy’s text, but with different proportions. The combined typology based on two methods reveals that the countries from the postSoviet bloc and East Asia prioritize the theme “development,” highlighting the high level of the state’s involvement in AI innovation. It is found that the countries from the EU focus on “control,” which reflects the union’s hard stance on AI regulation, whereas countries like the UK, the US, and Ireland emphasize a more hands-off governance arrangement with the leading role of the private sector by prioritizing “promotion.” Policy Design and Practice (2023): 1-24.

14 Research Showcase Thu, M. K., Beppu, S., Yarime, M., & Shibayama, S. (2022). Role of Machine and Organizational Structure in Science. and analyzes the contribution of ML to scientific knowledge production under different team structures, drawing on bibliometric analyses of 25,000 scientific publications in various disciplines. It is suggested by regression analyses that (1) interdisciplinary collaboration between domain scientists and computer scientists as well as the engagement his study investigates the team structure of machine learning (ML)-related projects T of interdisciplinary individuals who have expertise in both domain and computer sciences are common in MLrelated projects; (2) the engagement of interdisciplinary individuals seem more important in achieving high impact and novel discoveries, especially when a project employs computational and domain approaches interdependently; and (3) the contribution of ML and its implication to team structure depends on the depth of ML. Plos one, 17(8), e0272280. Machine learning related vs machine learning unrelated

Zhu, Pengyu, and Yuqing Guo. “Telecommuting and Trip Chaining: Pre-Pandemic Patterns and Implications for the Post-Pandemic World.” trip-chaining behavior in the decade prior to the pandemic using 2009 and 2017 U.S. National Household Travel Surveys, the findings show that telecommuting significantly increases people’s propensity to chain trips, raises trip-chaining frequency, and encourages more complex trip chains. Furthermore, these impacts are significant on commuting days, which suggests that telecommuters still his paper investigates if there exist consistent modification influences of telecommuting on T have different trip-chaining behavior than non-telecommuters on the days when they commute to the workplace. While trip chaining has been encouraged under pandemic conditions to minimize health risks, heightened health concerns will fade as the pandemic recedes. With telecommuting likely to persist, unraveling how trip-chaining behaviour had changed in response to telecommuting before the pandemic can help policymakers better understand the long-term changes in travel behavior in the post-pandemic world. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 113 (2022): 103524. HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 15 Research Showcase

He, Jingwei Alex, Fan, Yumeng, and Su, Rui. (2022). Seeking Policy Solutions in a Complex System: Experimentalist Governance in China’s Healthcare Reform. by an experimental approach that offers a conducive framework to seek policy solutions amidst high levels of complexity in a multilevel governance structure. Four distinctive experimental modalities are conceptualized based on varying levels of technical and interest complexity, which represent salient constraints for policy reforms in a complex system, especially in the health sector. The four modalities: he paper tackles the problem of “wicked” policy problems proliferation in complex systems T trail-blazing pilots, crowdsourcing pilots, managed pilots, and road-testing pilots are all associated with distinct mechanisms of experimentation in a multilevel governance structure. Four illustrative cases from China’s massive experimental program of public hospital reform are presented to demonstrate how experimentalist governance seeks policy solutions in the health sector. It is proven that governance can play an instrumental role in seeking solutions for difficult problems in a complex policy system. Policy Sciences, 55(4), 755-776. 16 Research Showcase Urban and Social Policy The health policy gridlock in China, 1980s–2010s

HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 17 Research Showcase He, Alex Jingwei, Azad Singh Bali, and M. Ramesh. “Active Stewardship in Healthcare: Lessons From China’s Health Policy Reforms.” one of “active stewardship” wherein the government is a central actor steering and coordinating the sector through a portfolio of diverse policy tools. In this conceptualization, the government is not a passive participant—in merely financing, delivering, or regulating the sector—but a steersman at the helm that sets policy objectives and actively pursues them. It is argued that active stewardship is central to achieving contemporary health policy priorities of universal healthcare. By his paper conceptualizes the government’s role in contemporary health policy as T applying this conceptualization to China’s recent healthcare forms, it is shown that the role of the government in governing the sector has changed substantially over time, particularly since 2009, and the changes are showing promising results. China’s experience suggests that governments need to more actively guide and shape the behaviour of both public and private players in order to achieve the goals of universal health coverage. It also suggests that a high degree of policy capacity is essential if active stewardship is to be effective. Social Policy & Administration 56.6 (2022): 925-940. Word cloud of policy documents of the National Healthcare Security Administration (Chinese)

18 Research Showcase Liu, Kai, Wenting Liu, and Alex Jingwei He. “Evaluating Health Policies with Subnational Disparities: a Text-Mining Analysis of the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance Scheme in China.” generic policy. By using the emerging ‘text-as-data’ methodology and drawing from subnational policy documents, this study developed a novel approach to policy measurement by analyzing policy big data. This approach is applied to examine the impacts of China’s Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) on individuals’ out-of-pocket (OOP) spending. Substantial disparities are found in policy choices across prefectures when categorizing the UEBMI policy framework into benefitexpansion and cost-containment reforms. Overall, the UEBMI policies lowered enrollees’ OOP spending in prefectures that embraced both benefit-expansion and cost-containment reforms. In contrast, the policies produced ill effects on OOP spending of UEBMI enrollees and uninsured This paper studies heterogeneous effects and distinct policy choices across localities under the same T workers in prefectures that carried out only benefit-expansion or cost-containment reforms. The micro-level impacts of UEBMI enrolment on OOP spending were conditional on whether prefectural benefit expansion and cost-containment reforms were undertaken in concert. Only in prefectures that promulgated both types of reforms did UEBMI enrolment reduce OOP spending. These findings contribute to a comprehensive textmining measurement approach to locally diverse policy efforts and an integration of macro-level policy analysis and microlevel individual analysis. Contextualizing policy measurements would improve the methodological rigour of health policy evaluations. This paper concludes with implications for health policymakers in China and beyond. Health Policy and Planning 38.1 (2023): 83-96. Local policy discrepancy in the UEBMI reforms

HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 19 Research Showcase Zhu, P., Tan, X., Zhao, S., Shi, S., & Wang, M. (2022). Land Use Regulations, Transit Investment, and Commuting Preferences. at the aggregated metropolitan level, have affected people’s long-term travel behaviors over a 15-year period, and how these impacts differ between younger and older age groups. This study combines a set of land use regulation indices measured at the metropolitan level in 2003 with 15 years of travel data (2005–2019) from a pooled representative sample of over 8 million workers in the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. Results show several local anti-sprawl land use regulations (e.g., growth containment, adequate public facilities, and moratoria), when combined at the metropolitan level, effectively reduced driving notwithstanding their marginal effects. Government investment in public transit also significantly increased commuters’ likelihood of using public transit and, carpooling, as well as increased carpool group size. Moreover, the commuting mode choices of younger workers are more responsive to transit improvements and land use regulations. Urban planners should commit to regional cooperative planning to promote effective land use regulations at the metropolitan level. Regional collaborative entities, such as metropolitan planning organizations should play a larger role in coordinating his paper examines how various local land use regulations and transit investment, both measured T local land use planning and regulations. To reduce automobile dependency, planners should commit to improving public transit through enhanced financial assistance, harnessing land use regulations in a more targeted way, and accommodating the needs of different age cohorts. Land Use Policy, 122, 106343. Marginal effects for the older and younger age groups

Zhu, P., Tan, X., Wang, M., Guo, F., Shi, S., & Li, Z. (2023). The Impact of Mass Gatherings on The Local Transmission of COVID-19 and The Implications for Social Distancing Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong. evaluates the importance of social distancing policies. With an aggregated dataset of epidemiological, city-level meteorological, and socioeconomic data, a Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is used for constructing a ‘synthetic Hong Kong’ from over 200 Chinese cities. This counterfactual control unit is used to simulate COVID-19 infection patterns (i.e., his paper examines the impacts of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and T the number of total cases and daily new cases) in the absence of mass gatherings. Comparing the hypothetical trends and the actual ones, our results indicate that the infection rate observed in Hong Kong is substantially higher than that in the counterfactual control unit (2.63% vs. 0.07%). As estimated, mass gatherings increased the number of new infections by 62 cases (or 87.58% of total new cases) over the 10–day period and by 737 cases (or 97.23%) over the 30-day period. These findings suggest the necessity of tightening social distancing policies, especially the prohibition on group gathering regulation (POGGR), to prevent and control COVID-19 outbreaks. Plos one, 18(2), e0279539. Research Showcase 20

HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 21 Research Showcase Zhu, P., Wang, K., Ho, S. N. R., & Tan, X. (2023). How is Commute Mode Choice Related to Built Environment in a High-Density Urban Context? environment and travel behavior in extremely dense urban settings, using Hong Kong as a case study. In addition to investigating how built environment features are related to the choices between public transport and cars, public transportation is divided into three submodes to study the impacts of the built environment. Furthermore, how these relationships differ between millennials and older generations was tested. Results indicate that built environment characteristics are more influential in people’s choices among different public his paper addresses the unique challenges and problems associated with the built T transport sub-modes than in their choice between public transport and cars. Compared to older commuters, millennials’ choices of rail-based and mixed-mode public transport are more susceptible to built environment attributes whereas their effects on road-based transit usage are stronger for older commuters. These investigations provide important insights into individuals’ commute mode choices in highly dense, transit-dominated urban contexts, and hence provide more reliable grounds for policymaking to encourage the usage of specific public transit submodes, and to meet the needs of different age groups. Cities, 134, 104180. Map showing the tertiary planning units/ street block (TPUSB) and tertiary planning units (TPU) boundaries

22 Research Showcase Zhu, Pengyu, Yi Zhang, and Juan Wang. “Canceling The Admission Priority of Private Schools Enlarges Housing Price Gap in Public School Districts: Evidence from Shanghai’s New Admission Policy.” private and public school competition and discouraging private school choice priority to promote education equity. By examining the impact of the new admission policy on the capitalization of public education quality, boundary fixed effect and Difference in Differences (DID) analysis were applied to housing transaction records before and after the policy. The admission policy on average led to an additional 2% housing price premium for every standard deviation increase in public school quality. However, n this paper, the authors studied the effect of Shanghai’s unique admission policy measure for adjusting I this average increase in premium was mainly driven by elite (top 5%) school districts, where an additional 8.6% housing price premium was generated by the policy. Housing prices in nonelite school districts, on the other hand, demonstrated no significant changes. These results indicate that the policy enlarges the housing price gap among school districts with different education quality. Thus, rather than promoting education equity, this policy may overall worsen the housing affordability in good public school districts and make access to quality education more exclusive. Real Estate Economics 51.1 (2023): 49-67. Event study of the heterogeneous effect

HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 23 Research Showcase Matus, K., Sharif, N., Li, A., Cai, Z., Lee, W. H., & Song, M. (2023). From SARS to COVID-19: the Role of Experience and Experts in Hong Kong’s Initial Policy Response to an Emerging Pandemic. made under the context of the Covid-19 Pandemic outbreak in Hong Kong, at a time when trust in the Hong Kong government by Hong Kong people has hit an all-time low this research investigates the evolution of Hong Kong’s science advisory mechanisms for public health from before SARS, after SARS, and during COVID-19 in 2020, including the roles of key organizations and departments, the establishment of new centers his paper studies how scientific advice was offered and how public health decisions were T and committees, and the creation of workgroups and expert advisory panels. This paper compares and analyses the reasons behind these differences in science advisory mechanisms between SARS and COVID-19. The findings from this research reinforce the unquestionable need for robust science advisory structures and knowledgeable scientific experts to solve health-related crises, though more research is required to understand the ways in which science advice influences both policy decisions and public acceptance of these policies. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 10(1), 1-16. Four formal workgroups along with an informal expert advisory group report to the steering committee and command centre, created and led by the Chief Executive.

24 Research Showcase Environmental Policy and Sustainability Iran, S., Martinez, C. M. J., Vladimirova, K., Wallaschkowski, S., Diddi, S., Henninger, C. E., Helen McCormick, Kira Matus, Meike Sauerwein, Renu Singh, Loredana Tiedke, (2022). When Mortality Knocks: Pandemic-Inspired Attitude Shifts towards Ssustainable Clothing Consumption in Six Countries. due to the COVID-19 Pandemic has impacted consumers’ attitudes toward fashion and consumption practices, using terror management theory across six different countries, from the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America. A structured qualitative study with closed, open-ended, and multiplechoice questions was completed by a sample of consumers (N = 3748) across these countries. Among all participants, one-third reported that the pandemic had affected their attitude toward clothing and this study was mainly conducted to investigate the nature of those attitude changes. Qualitative analysis identified his paper studies how the change and disruption of the routine lives of citizens globally T patterns of change in consumers’ attitudes towards clothing (e.g., minimalism, grateful mindset, conscious mindset, decreased fashion desire, longevity, and style confidence), which reveal the potential for a lasting shift towards more sustainable consumption patterns. The results of this study highlight valuable managerial implications that the industry needs to respond to this shift in consumers’ attitudes and move towards more sustainable business models and processes. These results are also relevant for predicting future consumption patterns, especially considering that pandemics may become a more regular part of life. International Journal of Sustainable Fashion & Textiles, 1(1), 9-39. Attitudes towards sustainable clothing consumption before the pandemic (*reverse items). Changes in attitude toward clothing during the pandemic

HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 25 Research Showcase Zhao, Bei, and Masaru Yarime. “The Impacts of Carbon Tariffs on International Trade Flows and Carbon Emissions: An Analysis Integrating Trade Elasticities With an Application to US-China trade.” integrating trade elasticities into the analysis of carbon tariffs’ impacts on trade flows and carbon emissions embodied in exports. We start by adopting the gravity trade model and constructing a panel data set of 63 countries from 2005 to 2015 to calculate the trade elasticities across 13 industries. With a simple model that translates carbon tariffs into tariffs, the cross-country and cross-industry impacts of carbon tariffs were evaluated. A model to forecast the effect of carbon tariffs on China-US trade under different scenarios is also provided. It was discovered that industries’ trade elasticities and carbon his paper aims at reducing the gap between trade economics and environment studies by T intensities play an essential role in determining carbon tariffs’ impacts. It is also shown that the threshold carbon tariffs for the 13 industries with an average of $42/tCO2. It is found that if the U.S. stopped importing from China by replacing all Chinese exports with its domestic productions, it would emit 88.8% fewer carbon emissions than China does, which would contribute to a 0.65% decrease in world carbon emissions. Other scenarios of replacing all Chinese exports with Canadian, Japanese, or Mexican exports show similar results. This paper illuminates the critical importance of incorporating trade elasticities when designing carbon tariffs. Energy Economics 115 (2022): 106337. Trade elasticities and carbon intensities

Research Showcase Klemun, M. M., Ojanperä, S., & Schweikert, A. (2023). Toward Evaluating the Effect of Technology Choices on Linkages between Sustainable Development Goals. a better understanding of SDG co-benefits may enable faster progress on multiple sustainability fronts. However, SDG linkages are typically analyzed without considering the technologies used to implement a primary SDG, which may have secondary effects on other SDGs. Here, we outline an approach to study this problem by connecting the industries and services required to produce technology to the United Nations SDG indicator framework, inkages between the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have sparked research interest because L using SDG7 and four energy technologies as an illustrative case. We find that all technologies in our set involve potential co-benefits with SDGs 1, 8–10, 12–13, and 17, and trade-offs with SDGs 6, 8–9, 11–12, and 14–15. Deployment services primarily induce co-benefits; manufacturing has mixed impacts. Our work sheds light on the technology characteristics (e.g., scale, high- or low-tech) that influence linkages while also pointing to SDGrelevant characteristics not captured by UN indicators. iScience, 26(2), 105727. 26

27 Public Policy Dialogue Series

t was raised by Prof. Cheung that development without damaging the resources of the environment exists only in an ideal sense, but in reality, there are a lot of conflicts involved because of diverse interests, priorities, and power politics, taking the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals as an example, Prof. Cheung pointed out that some of the Goals may be conflicting each other during implementation while taking environmental protection and country park conservation into consideration in land use and urban planning fulfills the goal of sustainability, the current situation of having only 7% of Hong Kong’s land for residential development resulting in inadequate living is not sustainable. He further pointed out that the present land use may not be entirely fair and efficient and that land use is a political issue. Then, Prof. Cheung touched on some myths about urban development in Hong Kong, for instance, it is commonly believed that reclamation is not necessary, and idle brownfield and private agricultural land can be used for housing, the reality is clearance of brownfield and agricultural lands also take time, and reclamation is unavoidable. 2nd, the small-house policy in the New Territories is blamed for land shortage, the reality is the application for smallhouse land use is confined to Village Environments & Village Type Development and is not suitable for largescale residential development. He also questioned the notion that “Fanling Golf Club cannot be touched”. Drawing on Singapore’s Garden City story, Prof. Cheung suggested that authoritarian environmentalism still needs to face a lot of trade-offs and dilemmas. Looking forward to the Northern Metropolis that will 28 The Public Policy Dialogue Series on 3 December 2022 invited Professor Anthony Cheung, Professor Tak-lok Lui, and Professor Christine Loh to share their views and insights from different angles on the topic of “Development vs. Environment-An Irreconcilable Dilemma?” and gave constructive suggestions for policy making regarding land use, sustainable development, and urban planning. Development vs. Environment: An Irreconcilable Dilemma? I It is strange to let “development vs. environment” continue as a non-death discourse, he argued that it should not be an either/or question. Public Policy Dialogue Series

eventually accommodate 2.5 million residents and create 650,000 jobs, Prof. Cheung remarked it will be a big test case considering ecological conservation and urban development. Prof. Lui approached the topic from a different angle. He pointed out that sustainability can no longer be seen as a matter of secondary importance, and that it is strange to let “development vs. environment” continue as a non-death discourse, he argued that it should not be an either/or question, our impacts on the environment cannot be contained by technology, or left to our neighboring regions/countries – the negative outcomes will come back and hit us, but he admitted that the reality is this discourse still serves as a policy strawman pushing us to make a choice. Instead, Prof. Lui suggested the discussion should move to the next level, such as accessibility and effectiveness of regulations and measures to embed sustainability in all planning and development matters. From Prof. Lui’s point of view, Norther Metropolis can serve as a test case in a way that prohibition of cutting corner behavior (e.g. dumping inconvenient facilities in spaces of “lower opportunity cost”, there should be shortterm tacit measures to compromise longer-term development. He concluded that there will inevitably be debates and disagreements and there is no perfect planning but a planning mindset should be adopted instead of dwelling on the “development vs. environment” argument. Fusing the former two speakers, Prof. Loh compared the case in Singapore and Hong Kong, such as Singapore has 25% of its land reclaimed, while Hong Kong has only 6%, Hong Kong has its unique landscape of having extreme density, large elevated green areas, and extreme engineering on 29 HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 Public Policy Dialogue Series

30 slopes, that the policymakers should give a second thought on which areas should be protected vs. which are developed when concerning the country park land. She also touched on the issue of small houses, the gold course controversy, and the quantityled vs quality-led issue regarding Northern Metropolis Development Strategy. Taking that Hong Kong’s population growth fell and even became negative since 2020, and Shenzhen’s GDP has become more or less the same as Hong Kong’s, Prof. Loh recommended Hong Kong policymakers rescale the perspective by not just looking at Hong Kong as a small unit but by imagining other possibilities and scenarios that Hong Kong can embrace through regional collaboration in the Greater Bay Area, such as learning from the solutions of Singapore and Shanghai to move their container ports further outward. In the final section, all speakers agreed that the planning parameters in the future should not be confined to Hong Kong but Hong Kong within the Greater Bay Area region. The government should also consider other factors while planning. Still, due to One Country, Two Systems, policymakers should not assume Hong Kong would be entirely the same as the mainland in terms of mobility, the flow of people, and institutional arrangements. Nevertheless, the new parameters would give us a new way of thinking. Public Policy Dialogue Series

31 rof. Cheung started the topic “Giving Hope to Young People: What Matters and How?” by quoting President Xi Jinping in his major address on the HKSAR’s 25th Anniversary “We must pay special attention to and care for young people. Hong Kong will prosper only when its young people thrive!” and the Hong Kong Government’s good intention to “provide young people with an enabling environment to cherish hope for the future, to strive for continuous growth, so that they can unleash their full potential in society and contribute to Hong Kong, the country and the world.” In the Youth Development Blueprint, Prof. Cheung pointed out that to address youth issues well, we should first understand youth issues well. Recalling how radical youth in 2019’s extradition protest forced the government’s hand and 40% of the arrested were students (with 20% of the arrested below the age of 18), Prof. Cheung remarked the youth of Hong Kong belong to “3D” generation, i.e. dispossessed, disenfranchised, disillusioned, the reality we are facing is a generation of youth torn between idealism and fatalism, that is having a great passion for Hong Kong, but pessimistic about the city’s future, acknowledging that the youth in Hong Kong care not only about material achievement and success in terms of study, employment, entrepreneurship, and home ownership, but they also have a vision in building a fair and progressive society that they can be proud of. By referring to Herzberg’s Two Factor Theory, Prof. Cheung elaborated that the youth need not just hygiene factors in material terms, but also need motivating factors in the forms of a sense of self-worth and self-actualization. The Public Policy Dialogue Series on 7 January 2023, jointly organized by the Department of Asian and Policy Studies, the Academy of Hong Kong Studies in the Education University of Hong Kong, and the Division of Public Policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, invited Prof. Anthony B.L. CHEUNG, Prof. Tai-lok LUI, and Mr. Brian WONG to discuss whether the Hong Kong government’s initiative on boosting the morale of Hong Kong youth is a promising policy. Giving Hope to Young People: What Matters and How? P The structural problems Hong Kong confronts today are numerous that include foundational stagnation, growing socioeconomic inequalities, and deep uncertainty over the political future as a city. HKUST PPOL | Newsletter Spring 2023 Public Policy Dialogue Series

32 Prof. Lui then looked at the issue from an education perspective, pinpointing the value system and definition of “success” that has shaped the youth’s self-worth, irrationally thinking that getting a university degree is a must while rationally recognizing that a university degree is indeed a way to secure higher return in the long run make the youth and their parents stuck in a mono-track. He remarked that the topic is a tall agenda covering a lot of areas that we are not ready to go into. Mr. Brian suggested that the fundamental problem that Hong Kong is its agency that the youth cannot get access to and have their voice heard. The structural problems Hong Kong confronts today are numerous that include foundational stagnation, growing socioeconomic inequalities, and deep uncertainty over the political future as a city. Despite the closer integration with the mainland, the actual sense of proximity and closeness with the mainland has not increased over the past decade. There remains a deep-rooted sense of skepticism and weariness of the mainland, even though it is our country and we are part of China. He presented a pyramid that can capture the problems and challenges that the youth face today, and outline some prospective solutions as to what could be done. During the discussion session of this public policy dialogue series, the speakers addressed concerns and questions raised by different age groups of the audience and represented different prospects of the issues related to youth in Hong Kong, ranging from education to employment and development space of youth in an increasingly divisive complex society. Public Policy Dialogue Series